The pundits who wrongly predicted the savage ballet that the euro and pound danced over the past 18 months are now nursing their lessened reputations.
Only a year ago many were sniffily dismissing the weak the pound compared to the gold-standard euro, lauding the prosperity of Europe’s recession proof economies and ribbing us Brits for not joining in. But little did they know that a clutch of countries were hiding very weak economies and mountains of debt.
Will the euro vs pound fluctuations help British home buyers overseas?
Last week all was revealed. The catastrophe that is the Greek economy, plus worrying news from Spain, Portugal and Ireland, have sent the euro tumbling, leading many to hope that the glory days of the overseas property market – which at one point was subsidised by up to 30% through favourable exchange rates – might return.
Many remember how from 2001 until late-2007 buying a home in the euro zone was an exchange dream. £100,000 bought a €140,000 villa or apartment, and it was this advantage that helped British buyers sustain a prolonged coastal holiday home buying boom in hotspots such as Portugal and Spain.
But over the past two and a half years the euro advantage has receded and in February 2008 the Euro almost achieved parity with Sterling. But gloom in Europe has pushed the pound to €1.15 and many are hoping this foreign exchange slide will give a financial boost to British buyers overseas. But what do the foreign exchange pundits think?
“Although there are going to be some short and medium term benefits, the long-term debt problems within the British economy mean it is going to be a long time before the exchange improves enough to make a huge difference to buyers,” says Duncan Higgins of exchange firm Caxton FX.
“Talk of a hung parliament and high rates of government debt in Britain means investors have been avoiding Britain recently so at best I think the rate might climb to €1.20 before falling back again.
Higgins says that market turbulence at the moment means he can predict only one thing at the moment – that despite attempts to bail out Europe’s ailing economies the euro will remains weak, and therefore parity with the pound is unlikely to return soon.
Wrongly predicting the savage ballet that the euro and pound have danced over the past 18 moths has muddied the reputations of several financial bloggers and other exchange experts recently.
Only a year ago many were guffawing at how weak the pound was against the gold-standard euro, lauding the prosperity of Europe’s recession proof economies and ribbing us Brits for not joining in. But little did they know that a clutch of countries were hiding the very weak state of their economies – and mountains of debt.
Last week all was revealed. The catastrophe that is the Greek economy, plus worrying news from Spain, Portugal and Ireland, have sent the euro tumbling, leading many to hope that the glory days of the overseas property market – which at one point was subsidised by up to 30% through favourable exchange rates – might return.
Many remember how, from 2001 until late-2007, buying a home in the euro zone was an exchange dream. £100,000 bought a €140,000 villa or apartment, and it was this advantage that helped British buyers sustain a prolonged coastal holiday home boom in hotspots such as Portugal and Spain.
But over the past two and a half years the euro advantage has receded and in February 2008 the euro almost achieved parity with the pound.
Today the pound buys €1.15 and many are hoping that Europe’s woes will devalue the euro further and the process give a financial boost to British buyers overseas.
“The long-term debt problems within the British economy mean it is going to be a long time before the exchange improves enough to make a huge difference to buyers,” says Duncan Higgins of exchange firm Caxton FX.
“Talk of a hung parliament and high rates of government debt in Britain means investors have been avoiding Britain to date so at best I think the rate might climb to €1.20 before falling back again.
Higgins says that market turbulence at the moment means he can predict one thing at the moment – that despite attempts to bail out Europe’s ailing economies the euro will remains weak, and therefore parity with the pound is unlikely to return soon.
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