The following ‘Guest Blog’ is the output of a mouthwatering lunch at antipodean restaurant Suze in Mayfair with Melanie Backe-Hansen (the House Historian) and David Adams, head of sales and marketing at leading estate agent Chesterton Humberts. 

During the lunch his eloquence and knowledge of the property market struck me. So, even if your feelings towards agents aren’t entirely positive, I believe he’s one of the good ones – and worth reading. 

A short walk from Sloane Square and the river Thames, buyers love Westminster and Pimlico’s quiet streets, impressive and elegant regency terraces, disciplined Thomas Cubitt grid and grand garden squares.  It’s close to central London, Victoria train station (and its underground line) but despite this is still one of most affordable central areas of the capital and is the preferred location for the country set from the south and south west of England to hang out. 

Who is buying?
When Chesterton Humberts moved its Pimlico office to Victoria in 2008 (as the market was collapsing) there was disquiet that the move might reduce our high street profile, a view that Giles Pickles – who has been with us for 25 years and is known as “Mr Pimlico”- was keen to make. Two years on and figures show that we’ve sold almost half of all of the prime property in SWV1 – so I think Giles can relax. 

 Foreign buyers
What’s interesting is the high percentage of foreign buyers here at the moment. Of the 65 homes we’ve sold so far this year, 28% were to foreigners including Italian (10); Spanish (2); Far East (2); Middle East (1); French (1); Russian (1); and Indian (1). These properties have ranged in price from £282,000 to £1,650,000 and most are now buy to let or Pied-a-Terre properties.  

A house price rollercoaster
 Both prime houses and flats sell for £800 a square foot here (and up to £1000 for prime property), a price that’s enjoyed an extraordinary journey since 2005. A boom created by a shortage in housing supply, high immigration, and the availability of cheap buy-to-let credit, between 2005 and 2007 saw prices increase here by 20%.  In 2008, they collapsed when the base interest rate increased to 5.75%, just as the world’s economy was going into melt down.  The withdrawal of finance by banks, following the collapse of Northern Rock, ensured that the correction from this decision was going to be twice as big and fast as it needed to be.  

 V-shaped recovery
We are not building any more Regency homes in Pimlico so the resulting shortage of property and the insatiable demand from both the UK and Europe have offset the global downturn.  April 2009 saw a V-shaped recovery as the collapse in the pound made this a prime location for European buyers.  London is of course, the European capital of second homes, and Pimlico is right up there as a centre for this demand. 

Price rises last year
A combination of strong European demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of stock created by the ill conceived Labour government HIPs legislation, created price rises last year of 15% to 18% and prices were back to 2007 levels by late 2009 – the lack of bank finance didn’t impact the market here as much as it did elsewhere because many buyers were cash investors and Pied de Terre buyers.  

What’s happening now?
Prices continued to rise early this year by 3% until the new government sensibly reversed the HIP legislation. This, combined with a strengthening pound, turned a seller’s market back into a buyer’s market and prices have since fallen 3% correcting the earlier gains.  An over-supply of 1 bedroom apartments has not helped.  But the stock shortage across central London will grow again this Autumn putting a floor under prices.  When lending does eventually start to improve, whether it be next year, or the year after, with rental yields currently rising, Pimlico will again become a hot spot. The demand is there, the only aspect holding back the volume of sales is the lack of lending.

George Clarke is a busy man; TV’s pin up architect has just finished starring at this year’s Grand Designs Live at the NEC but our reporter Cheryl Markosky tracked him down before he went to get the low down on ‘Gorgeous George’ – who turns out to be much more than just a pretty face.

George has some interesting political views about the recession, the banking industry and the housing industry. Read our exclusive interview.

The infographic (as graphs have come to be called) included below in this blog doesn’t look at first glance as if it’s particularly interesting. Just a load of dry old blue lines wobbling across the seasons and years.

But I would urge you to look at it because, as you may realise, it reveals the unusual but rhythmic nature of Britain’s property market over the past six years. I came across this while looking at house hunting trends in Winchester, but it could be anywhere in the UK. It’s clearly shows how powerful the surge of home hunting is during the Autumn market.

Agents tend to pray for a strong ‘Autumn market’ but for home sellers and buyers it reveals how important it is to get ready for this late August to early November window, which I guess is the equivalent to the old ‘number plate registration’ for new car sales.

What what no one seems to really know why it happens. Is it Brits coming back from holiday and deciding to get stuck into their home move; the school term calendar; people’s desire to move before the Christmas festivities begin or simply the last chance to sell before Britain returns to the long Winter months of gloom?

Any agents, buyers or sellers with any ideas do post them in the comments box below – if you’ve got time, that is.

Too many for sale? How can there be so many homes for sale but no buyers?

After this blog last month started a healthy debate both here and on Twitter, let’s take it to the next level. House price analysts say a glut of homes on sale and falling numbers of buyers are causing small price drops now, with perhaps more to come.

But if people buy and sell at the same time, as most surely do, why are demand and supply out of line?

The mismatch
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says in mid-2007, before the credit crunch, estate agents typically sold 45% of their stock every three months. That fell to 15% in mid-2008 before rising to 30% early this year.

But now, with more homes on sale, the sale-to-stock ratio is back down to 24%.

Exploding a myth
This increased supply suggests that in reality selling and buying do not necessarily happen simultaneously. There is a small but important time gap.

Research by Santander says 1.1m homes in Brtain were put on the market in the year to  August but did not sell, often because would-be buyers could not get a mortgage.

Some estate agents say that as a result, more sellers now wait to find a purchaser before registering as buyers themselves to avoid spending time and energy finding a dream home only to lose it because they cannot sell their old property.

“Supply and demand balance over time but there’s always a lag, never an exact balance. A year ago there were more buyers but fewer homes, so prices rose. Now it’s the reverse” says Lucian Cook, research guru at estate agent Savills.

In addition the new-build sector, which slumped in 2008 and 2009, is recovering and adds 120,000 new properties on sale per year without creating new buyers.

Dying, divorcing but not buying
A further factor is probate sales; elderly owners die and their properties are sold by relatives who already own homes – so they inherit the proceeds and do not buy. Land Registry figures show that in 2007 some 7% of deals were probate sales. But now, with home sales halved but death rates static, they account for 15% of the market.

There are also 120,000 divorces a year. Analysis by Savills shows that in a third of cases the couple sell their home and, at first, each person rents before buying later.

In the past these ‘sell-but-not-buy’ figures have been balanced or outweighed by first time buyers, who purchase with nothing to sell. But tougher mortgage conditions and average deposits rising to £35,000 mean FTB numbers are 50% of the level in 2007.

Let’s see if that starts a debate.

Estate for sale: Trevalga in Devon

Selling a village lock, stock is a strange and even savage English custom that despite the heartache it can cause, takes place with unfortunate regularity.

Last year it was the Linkenholt estate in Berkshire (sold off for £25m) but this time round it’s Trevalga in North Devon, where a dying man’s wish is about to be broken after the school he gifted the village to in his will has, against his wishes, put it up for sale.

Marlborough College insist their charity status forces them to sell up regardless but this week the Charity Commission weighed in saying this was not true and that, as long as the college re-invests the profits, a sale is not necessary. To add to the political mix, the MP for North Devon is on the hunt for the real reason behind the sale and is taking the campaign to Parliament.

Before his death in 1959 Gerald Curgenven set up a trust for his 1,200 acre North Devon estate of Trevalga in which he willed the profits from the trust to his former school, Marlborough College, with a dying wish that the hamlet not be sold, broken up or the tenants removed.

For 51 years happiness has reigned but the Trust came to an end in June of this year, transferring absolute ownership from the Trustees to the college. Not content with the £170,000-a-year income, the college have put the Trevalga Estate on the market at £10 million.

Marlborough College is a registered charity and says it had been forced to put the estate up for sale rather than break charity laws on owning land as an investment. But it has now emerged that the college may be selling the estate for other reasons.

As registered charities, independent schools save £100 million in tax across the sector but the Charity Commission is clamping down and making them give back more to the community, such as taking in non-fee paying pupils. A plan to raise the finance to cover this lost revenue was hinted at in last year’s Marlborough College accounts: “a possible entitlement to the capital value of the Trevalga Estate has been identified”.

Until the sale is completed the 85 villagers’ future is uncertain. Belief in Gerald Curgenven’s wish to keep the hamlet unspoilt and allow them to remain had led some to spend up to £30,000 in home renovations. But it is now feared that if Trevalga is sold they will be evicted with eight week’s notice. Those on longer term tenancies worry their village community will go the same way as other areas in Cornwall where locals have been priced out of the market by wealthy second home owners.

The villagers do have a white knight in the form of North Cornwall MP Dan Rogerson who has started a campaign to prove that the £28,000-a-year college, with alumni such as Kate Middleton and Princess Eugenie, has an as-yet unidentified ulterior motive for selling Trevalga – and is to highlight the campaign in Parliament when it reconvenes on 6^th September.

You can join the battle to save Trevalga on its facebook page, which already has 1, 240 members.

For sale: one of the pretty stone cottages included in the £10m sell off