View from the estate agent’s window: guest blog
Thursday, May 17th, 2012David Adams, managing director of Mayfair-based estate agents John Taylor turns his attention to the health of the London market and what the Greek crisis could mean for property prices at home and abroad.
Why are Central London property prices booming and will this continue?
House prices will continue to rise in central London in the first half of 2012. There is an investment bubble growing with some unsustainable price rises occurring. Last week in Mayfair someone who had had an offer accepted at£ 6.5 million was gazumped by an offer of £8.5 million. So this increase must level out and may fall back if prices continue at the same rate for another year.
There are strong market forces sustaining this price growth. At the heart of the market, there are too many international buyers and not enough properties to go around.
Why have prices increased?
1. Many of those who make their money trading in stocks and bonds tell me they are now wary of buying over valued stock levels, and so need to divest a percentage of their investment portfolio into bricks and mortar.
2. With interest rates destined to remain at record low levels until 2014 or 2016 it makes sense to buy property, which will also act as an inflation hedge
3.Property in London is a good currency hedge against the Euro. If the Euro does devalue, or break up, money in pounds sterling in bricks and mortar (not the bank) is a good risk
4. Alternative safe havens against the Euro such as the Swiss franc and gold are horribly overvalued by historic comparison, whereas central London property is only just passing 2007 value levels
5.London presently has a lack of a wealth tax on property compared to many European countries, and while wealth taxes are very much a part of socialist ideology in the Liberal camp, no one believes that a Conservative led coalition would seek to damage London as a destination with such a fundamental change to the tax system. Not during difficult economic times anyway;
6.Many see London property as a useful investment.
Why is the market outside London so different?
The market in central London is driven by international cash. With the exception of some small enclaves of interest to international buyers such as Ascot, Sunningdale, the Wentworth Estate, and St Georges Hill, the rest of the English market is reliant on English buyers and their cash.
Sales volumes have been at record lows because there is limited cash and many banks do not what to lend buyers outside of areas of international interest, unless the buyer has substantial equity to offer.
What will happen to the property market if Greece defaults?
A Greek default is already built into the financial market and in my view this needs to occur to allow Greece to recover from a downward spiral. The risk is whether a Greek default triggers another default elsewhere.
A Greek default would be good for Greeks who presently own London property! If the new currency devalues by 50% the value of equity in property in London comparatively doubles. It will instantly become a lot cheaper to buy property in Greece. More importantly Greece’s tourism industry on which it depends should pick up because it will be cheaper for us to go there. This should be good for their long term recovery.
What will happen to the property market in England if the Eurozone breaks up as a result of the Greek default triggering a larger sovereign default?
Following the Greek default the Eurozone should continue, but in recession or very low growth for many years. Worst case scenario is is sovereign defaults, reissuing of currency, and bank failures across Europe, but this is highly unlikely.
Even if the Eurozone did break up, my French colleagues still see central London luxury property as a safe haven against devaluing new European currencies.
Where is the greatest capital gain to be made in property?
The greatest capital gain to be made in property is to buy property which is sought after by an international buyer (which restricts areas in England considerably) and in which the property can be converted to a higher and better use. For example buying a commercial property at low commercial rates, and gaining planning to convert to residential. Or buying a leasehold property with a very short lease and extending the lease.
There is little money to be made in refurbishing property without doing something else to increase value, unless you are at the multi million pound end of the market.
What should I do if I need to sell a property, and cant because it isn’t near London or in one of the small country enclaves sought by internationals?
You can convert your property to a higher and better use. Are you able to add more bedrooms within the existing floor space? Are you able to add land easily? Can you extend the lease or gain the freehold? If you can’t sell or improve, you could rent it out and move into a smaller property within the area that you need to move to.
Which other international markets offer the potential for good capital gain?
The French part of Switzerland, and particularly Geneva is a good bet. Again the currency is separate from the Euro, as is the pound. There is more demand for property than there is supply and Geneva is a sought after destination by international buyers because it is a safe haven with good access to other parts of Europe.
The Cote D ‘Azur is also a good bet. Properties with a sea view didn’t drop in price through the last recession. Limited supply and worldwide demand also helps.
Monaco is also a good investment because there no more room there to build more property which means supply is limited. There is a lot of Eastern European money and non-domiciled English money pouring into property here which has helped Monaco achieve Europe’s highest prices per square foot.



















